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Premier League Any Time Goal Scorer Preview

12 Feb 2016

With 4 players coming agonisingly close last time round, all missing the big prize by just 1 selection, we see the jackpot rise to a juicy £7,500. We’ll take a look at some statistics, history, bookmakers odds and other key pieces of information with the aim of helping you select 6 anytime goalscorers this weekend.

We begin the analysis for this round of fixtures by looking at some attacking and defensive statistics from the past 3 Premier League games. This will help us to determine which attacking units are on form, and which defensive ones are not, allowing us to hone in on players likely to find the back of the net…

Team Goals scored Goals per game
Leicester      8      2.7
Liverpool      7      2.3
Everton      7      2.3
Tottenham      7        2.3

 

Team Goals conceded Goals per game
Norwich      10      3.3
Stoke      9      3.0
Liverpool      8      2.7
Crystal Palace      6      2.0

 

Table-toppers Leicester have rediscovered their form in front of goal recently, notching 2.7 goals per game, including 3 in last weekend’s impressive victory over Manchester City at The Etihad. That period has seen star players Jamie Vardy (3) and Riyad Mahrez (1) both find the net, whilst Robert Huth, perhaps the ultimate differential for Predict the Six players, has also been on the scoresheet twice from set pieces. The Foxes travel to Arsenal on Sunday in a clash that will have big ramifications at the top of the division but, with the Gunners keeping 4 clean sheets in their last 6, Claudio Ranieri will certainly need both Vardy and Mahrez (and maybe Huth) firing on all cylinders.

Stoke have suffered since Ryan Shawcross was injured against Leicester back at the tail end of January, losing that game 3-0 and going on to lose each of their following Premier League matches by the same scoreline. The Potters visit Bournemouth on Saturday, for whom Benik Afobe has scored 3 in 5 since arriving in January and, with Shawcross still out injured, it looks likely that Bournemouth, and Afobe, can profit.

3 Premier League sides were in midweek action due to FA Cup Replays; West Ham, Liverpool and West Brom. The trio all went the distance in extra time, so we can safely expect there to be some injuries, fatigue and rotation affecting these teams this weekend.

For Predict the Six players, the most intriguing of the aforementioned sides is West Brom. The Baggies played on Wednesday night, giving them less than 72 hours to recover before a trip to Everton. With Jonny Evans and Craig Dawson doubtful, as well as Gareth McAuley injured, Tony Pulis could be without 3 of his regular back 4. This makes Everton players particularly tempting, with Roberto Martinez’s men averaging 2.3 goals per game lately. Romelu Lukaku scored twice against West Brom in the reverse fixture in September, whilst Ross Barkley has found the net 4 times in his last 4 appearances in all competitions.

Our fixture of interest this weekend is another game that will have big implications in the title race: Man City vs Spurs. The best home attack in the division (City - 2.6 goals per game scored) face the best away defence (Tottenham - 0.8 goals per game conceded), so something will have to give. Add the fact that the North London club are currently 1 of the form attacking teams in the league (2.3 goals per game) and it looks like the clash at The Etihad is shaping up to be a real cracker. With Spurs trailing Leicester by 5 points, and the Citizens a further point behind, both sides will be gunning for a win that will boost their title prospects and, fortunately, they both have the ammunition they require…

Sergio Aguero has been on fire recently, scoring 7 goals in his last 6 Premier League games. The mercurial striker has been back to his best despite City faltering, and their title chances could hinge on whether Aguero can continue, or even improve, his goalscoring numbers. Strike partner Kelechi Iheanacho, if he can claim a position in the starting XI, could also be a good shout given that he has scored 4 goals in the last 3 games where he has featured for over 45 minutes.

Tottenham’s main threat arrives in the form of England hitman Harry Kane. With 15 league goals to his name this season, Kane has also hit a rich vein of form recently, netting 4 in his last 4 games. Another Spurs player more than worthy of consideration is young star Dele Alli. The former MK Dons midfielder is enjoying a fantastic debut season in the Premier League and has scored in 5 of his last 6 away games. In fact, it seems that the England hopeful prefers playing on the road, given that all but 1 of his 7 league goals have come away from White Hart Lane.

With 8 of the last 11 meetings between the 2 sides seeing over 2.5 goals scored, Predict the Six players can certainly look at this fixture with confidence. Earlier this season, Tottenham won the reverse fixture 4-1, with Eric Dier, Toby Alderweireld, Harry Kane and Erik Lamela the scorers, whilst Kevin de Bruyne netted for City. Looking a little further back, the scoreline was the same when the 2 met at The Etihad last season. Christian Eriksen scored for the visitors that day, scant consolation for the 4 goals scored by Sergio Aguero…

We round off our analysis with the bookies favoured 6. These are the players that are given the lowest anytime goalscorer odds by the bookmakers, and therefore the highest implied chance of scoring this weekend. They are;

Diego Costa (home vs Newcastle) - 1.95 (51% chance of scoring)
Romelu Lukaku (home vs West Brom) - 2.10 (48%)
Sergio Aguero (home vs Tottenham) - 2.10 (48%)
Olivier Giroud (home vs Leicester) - 2.40 (42%)
Wayne Rooney (away vs Sunderland) - 2.55 (39%)
Daniel Sturridge (away vs Aston Villa) - 2.6 (38%)

Taking everything into account, our Predict the Six recommendation is…

Diego Costa
Sergio Aguero
Dele Alli
Benik Afobe
Wayne Rooney
Ross Barkley

Who do you fancy this weekend? Remember there's £7,500 up for grabs from a £1 stake. The selection above would only net you around £254 at the bookies, so a winner with us is likely to follow in the footsteps of our other 70-odd winners this season by smashing the winnings they would have picked up for their bet at the bookies! Hit the Play Now button below to get involved.

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